With the final installment of our Super Six World Boxing Classic breakdown, Andre Ward is the leader going into group stage-three with all the participants on his heels except the pointless Allan Green.
Going into the third group-stage we have a tight race with Andre Ward leading with four points, Abraham in second with three points, while Dirrell, Froch and Kessler are tied at two points and Green being the lone pointless one. We have seen a good knockout, a war, a couple blow-outs and a couple questionable hometown decision victories. Continuing in the tournament I see Ward being a tough puzzle to piece for the other five fighters but let’s take a look at round three match-ups and my predictions going forward.
First off let me say that I think the Europeans are having a difficult time with the speed and movement of Ward and Dirrell, and think they will have a hard time making the adjustments to compete with Ward especially.
The first fight in round three pairs Abraham and Froch on Sept 18, 2010, location to be announced. This is a tough one to call, both are counter punchers and both start slowly. I believe Froch is more technical and counters better, on the other hand I think Abraham adopts to the coming forward style well, hitting harder and this could be a problem for Froch if he starts getting hit with Arthur’s power shots. Though I think it will be hard for Arthur to land his big left-hook and straight-rights going forward with Froch’s slick style, he also possesses a good beard. I see Froch going to work countering Abraham’s body causing Arthur to open up allowing Froch to penetrate his high guard and score points with jabs, rights and left-hooks in the later rounds, winning a close decision, which would give Froch four points while Arthur would remain at three.
The second group stage-three scrap, a week later between Andre Ward and Andre Dirrell will be for Ward’s WBA Championship belt in a place to be announced. An intriguing match-up, though I have already chosen a clear winner, Ward. The Andres are very similar in their fighting style and good friends who are very familiar with one another. I think the difference in this fight will come down to Ward’s calmness and maturity level in the squared circle. They are pretty even in raw talent but I presume Ward’s mental and veteran tricks are comfortably ahead of Dirrell’s. They both have great lateral movement, speed and defense while both can box or brawl inside and out, there isnt much these two can’t do. They both jump in leading with their head but Ward employs his rough house tactics smarter and smoother and it really works to his advantage. Dirrell jumps in wildly and off balance and he will not be able to get away with this as he did in the first two stages because Ward will clip him with short hooks or a straight-right mid flight with accuracy, which is also better then Dirrell’s. As the fight goes on, Dirrell’s punches will start to widen while Ward will keep coming straight down the pipe, which I think will allow Ward to take over in the later rounds on points winning a clear-cut decision and retaining his WBA strap for a second defense in his toughest fight in the tournament to date. This would raise Ward’s point total to a comfortable lead at six points while Dirrell would remain at two points and in danger of not making the semi-finals, due to his first round controversial decision loss to Froch, which most observers think Dirrell won and would have had him sitting much more comfortable at four points, but it wasn’t to be.
Ending group stage three is the showdown between the two participants I think to be the weakest of the six with the least amount of chance to win in Mikkel Kessler vs Allan Green for Kessler’s WBC belt, location and date to be announced. This one I also have a tough time calling even after Green’s invisible act against Ward and here is why. Mikkel seems to have slowed, not getting out of the way of punches like he used to and he lost some pop in his punches. I thought Green got caught in the moment and folded under the bright lights in his first championship fight, and first Showtime fight for that matter, and first fight in tournament. I must believe Green will arrive on fight night way better prepared and ready to give Kessler competition. Kessler does not move like Ward so Green should be able to utilize his height, length, and reach advantage and keep the fight on the outside better then his previous fight. I don’t believe Green out boxes Kessler, but I can easily see him boxing well enough to keep it close making Kessler, maybe a little too aggressive coming forward, trying to get out to a lead on points and Green countering him with a big right or left-hook that knocks Kessler out. Though I think the more likely scenerio is Kessler winning a decision on the score cards by pressuring Green, throwing punches in bunches and mixing it up to the body and head with hooks and straight rights while employing a better jab. I think Kessler will hurt Green’s body, breaking him down then going to work on Green’s brash mouth and head, earning him what would be his second win in the tournament and elevating him to four points while eliminating Allan Green after two losses and no points and according to my calculations, eliminating Dirrell as well who would only have two points after losing to Ward.
This would leave Ward and the three Europeans moving on, and as I said earlier, I do not think any of the three can compete with or make the needed adjustments to deal with Ward’s speed, movement, defense, body work, rough housing or veteran tricks.
I’m thinking Ward goes 5-0 to win tournament establishing himself as a bonafide star while breaking into the top three on the pound for pound lists.
Only time will tell.